Is tourism development a sustainable economic growth strategy in the long run? Evidence from GCC countries

The main objective of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between tourism development and economic growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in a multivariate model, using panel data for the period 1995-2012. The study adopts a panel Granger causality analysis approach to assess the contribution of tourism to economic growth in GCC countries as a whole, and in each individual country. In the case of GCC countries as a whole, the results show a one-way Granger causality, from economic growth to tourism growth. Furthermore, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates follow the path of economy-driven tourism growth, as hypothesized. The reverse hypothesis (i.e., tourism-led growth hypothesis) holds true for Bahrain, while there is no causal relationship between tourism and economic growth in the case of Oman.