Population modeling and housing demand prediction for the Saudi 2030 Vision: a case study of Riyadh City

Purpose: The Saudi 2030 Housing Program Vision aims to increase the population of Riyadh City, the capital of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, to between 15 and 20 million people. This paper aims to predict the demand for residential units in Riyadh City by 2030 in line with this vision. Design/methodology/approach: This paper adopts a statistical modeling approach to estimate the residential demands for Riyadh City. Several population growth models, including the nonlinear quadratic polynomial spline regression model, the sigmoidal logistic power model and the exponential model, are tested and applied to Riyadh to estimate the expected population in 2030. The growth model closest to the Kingdom’s goal of reaching between 15 and 20 million people in 2030 is selected, and the paper predicts the required number of residential units for the population obtained from the selected model. Desktop database research is conducted to obtain the data required for the modeling and analytical stage. Findings: The exponential model predicts a population of 16,476,470 in Riyadh City by 2030, and as a result, 2,636,235 household units are needed. This number of housing units required in Riyadh City exceeds the available residential units by almost 1,370,000, representing 108% of the available residential units in Riyadh in 2020. Originality/value: This study provides valuable insights into the demand for residential units in Riyadh City by 2030 in line with the Saudi 2030 Housing Program Vision, filling the gap in prior research. The findings suggest that significant efforts are required to meet the housing demand in Riyadh City by 2030, and policymakers and stakeholders need to take appropriate measures to address this issue.